Saturday, December 6, 2008

Waiting for snow

High pressure still rules the Sierra, but a door may be cracking open:
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NIGHTTIME
INVERSIONS WITH NEVADA VALLEY HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE
SIERRA WILL BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY /DEC 13TH/ AS
MODELS DIVERGE AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE TO AT LEAST 140W ON
THURSDAY...WHICH TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL OPEN THE REGION TO A COLD FLOW...WITH AIR DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OR THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TO ABOUT
150W...WHILE THE ECMWF IS NEAR 140W. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS THE STORM TRACK IS FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF WOULD BE COLDER THEN THE GFS...DRIER
WITH ITS STORM TRACK REMAINING OVER LAND BUT WOULD STILL PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

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